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	Comments on: Italy: scientists sent to prison for faulty earthquake predictions	</title>
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	<link>https://www.overlawyered.com/2012/10/italy-scientists-sent-prison-faulty-earthquake-predictions/</link>
	<description>Chronicling the high cost of our legal system</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2012 04:27:04 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>
		By: lawinsider		</title>
		<link>https://www.overlawyered.com/2012/10/italy-scientists-sent-prison-faulty-earthquake-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-179489</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[lawinsider]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2012 04:27:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://overlawyered.com/?p=33750#comment-179489</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I bet studying tort law in Italy is tons of fun!]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I bet studying tort law in Italy is tons of fun!</p>
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		<title>
		By: rxc		</title>
		<link>https://www.overlawyered.com/2012/10/italy-scientists-sent-prison-faulty-earthquake-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-177891</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[rxc]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Oct 2012 17:34:21 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[The problem with all of this is that they used words to describe the risk, instead of numbers.  &quot;Small chance&quot; means different things to different people.  1 chance in 100 is more quantitative, but there is an uncertainty associated with it, and most people do not understand what quantitative uncertainty means.  Low risk with large uncertainty does not mean that it will not happen.

Risk communication is very difficult to do with a public that is technically and mathematically challenged, especially when different people see the same quantitative risk in different ways.  See, e.g., nuclear power.

And the so-called precautionary principle is nothing more than a prescription for the society to be ruled by those who tell the scariest stories.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The problem with all of this is that they used words to describe the risk, instead of numbers.  &#8220;Small chance&#8221; means different things to different people.  1 chance in 100 is more quantitative, but there is an uncertainty associated with it, and most people do not understand what quantitative uncertainty means.  Low risk with large uncertainty does not mean that it will not happen.</p>
<p>Risk communication is very difficult to do with a public that is technically and mathematically challenged, especially when different people see the same quantitative risk in different ways.  See, e.g., nuclear power.</p>
<p>And the so-called precautionary principle is nothing more than a prescription for the society to be ruled by those who tell the scariest stories.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Scientists Convicted, Sent To Prison For Failing To Predict Earthquakes. &#124; Grumpy Old Man Blog		</title>
		<link>https://www.overlawyered.com/2012/10/italy-scientists-sent-prison-faulty-earthquake-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-177837</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Scientists Convicted, Sent To Prison For Failing To Predict Earthquakes. &#124; Grumpy Old Man Blog]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Oct 2012 14:02:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://overlawyered.com/?p=33750#comment-177837</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[[...] THAT science. What good are you if you can&#8217;t even predict earthquakes?   This entry was posted in Law and Order, News, WTF!! and tagged earthquakes, law, Science, WTF by [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;] THAT science. What good are you if you can&#8217;t even predict earthquakes?   This entry was posted in Law and Order, News, WTF!! and tagged earthquakes, law, Science, WTF by [&#8230;]</p>
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		<title>
		By: OBQuiet		</title>
		<link>https://www.overlawyered.com/2012/10/italy-scientists-sent-prison-faulty-earthquake-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-177796</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[OBQuiet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Oct 2012 11:01:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://overlawyered.com/?p=33750#comment-177796</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Invid,

If you want to require certainty, then RISK has nothing to do with it. If they had said,&quot;We cannot say with certainty that the town will not be leveled and everyone killed&quot;, I expect they would have been sentenced over the deaths of people fleeing.

I am not sure what was said but if if amounted to &quot;based on past experience, there is little risk of a larger, more destructive quake based on the current tremors&quot; and that was a reasonable accurate view based on the science, what more should they have done that would not have been a distortion of the truth?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Invid,</p>
<p>If you want to require certainty, then RISK has nothing to do with it. If they had said,&#8221;We cannot say with certainty that the town will not be leveled and everyone killed&#8221;, I expect they would have been sentenced over the deaths of people fleeing.</p>
<p>I am not sure what was said but if if amounted to &#8220;based on past experience, there is little risk of a larger, more destructive quake based on the current tremors&#8221; and that was a reasonable accurate view based on the science, what more should they have done that would not have been a distortion of the truth?</p>
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		<title>
		By: Invid		</title>
		<link>https://www.overlawyered.com/2012/10/italy-scientists-sent-prison-faulty-earthquake-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-177646</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Invid]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Oct 2012 23:50:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://overlawyered.com/?p=33750#comment-177646</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Since the scientists didn&#039;t know with any certainty, they shouldn&#039;t have told people that there was little risk of earthquake. 

I wouldn&#039;t have convicted them though.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Since the scientists didn&#8217;t know with any certainty, they shouldn&#8217;t have told people that there was little risk of earthquake. </p>
<p>I wouldn&#8217;t have convicted them though.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Scott		</title>
		<link>https://www.overlawyered.com/2012/10/italy-scientists-sent-prison-faulty-earthquake-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-177599</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Scott]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Oct 2012 20:14:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://overlawyered.com/?p=33750#comment-177599</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[It was noted on a comment forum on another site that the building engineers must have stronger political connections than the seismologists.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It was noted on a comment forum on another site that the building engineers must have stronger political connections than the seismologists.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Hugo S. Cunningham		</title>
		<link>https://www.overlawyered.com/2012/10/italy-scientists-sent-prison-faulty-earthquake-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-177591</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Hugo S. Cunningham]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Oct 2012 19:55:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://overlawyered.com/?p=33750#comment-177591</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[@John Cunningham--

You leave a distorted impression of nature.com&#039;s article, which concludes
&#062;for now all efforts should be channelled into protest, both at the severity of the sentence and at scientists being criminalized for the way their opinions were communicated. Science has little political clout in Italy and the trial proceeded in an absence of informed public debate that would have been unthinkable in most European countries or in the United States. Billi should promptly explain his decision, and the scientific community should promptly challenge it.
[end of quote]

I would have more sympathy with criminal prosecutions of builders who put up weak buildings in an earthquake zone, and crooked or lazy inspectors who did not call them to account.
How were the scientists supposed to know that this pattern of minor tremors would be followed by disaster, when so many others, at other times and places, were not?
The scientists may have been chosen as scapegoats in place of more culpable locals with political influence.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@John Cunningham&#8211;</p>
<p>You leave a distorted impression of nature.com&#8217;s article, which concludes<br />
&gt;for now all efforts should be channelled into protest, both at the severity of the sentence and at scientists being criminalized for the way their opinions were communicated. Science has little political clout in Italy and the trial proceeded in an absence of informed public debate that would have been unthinkable in most European countries or in the United States. Billi should promptly explain his decision, and the scientific community should promptly challenge it.<br />
[end of quote]</p>
<p>I would have more sympathy with criminal prosecutions of builders who put up weak buildings in an earthquake zone, and crooked or lazy inspectors who did not call them to account.<br />
How were the scientists supposed to know that this pattern of minor tremors would be followed by disaster, when so many others, at other times and places, were not?<br />
The scientists may have been chosen as scapegoats in place of more culpable locals with political influence.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Jim		</title>
		<link>https://www.overlawyered.com/2012/10/italy-scientists-sent-prison-faulty-earthquake-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-177589</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Oct 2012 19:32:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://overlawyered.com/?p=33750#comment-177589</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Hmmm, I wonder how the meteorologists feel about this one....]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hmmm, I wonder how the meteorologists feel about this one&#8230;.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Samson Isberg		</title>
		<link>https://www.overlawyered.com/2012/10/italy-scientists-sent-prison-faulty-earthquake-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-177588</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Isberg]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Oct 2012 19:30:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://overlawyered.com/?p=33750#comment-177588</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[And are we so much better? Essentially, the scientists have been jailed for failing to predict the unpredictable. How many times have obstetricians been faulted by the US and European court for failing to predict the unpredictable - e.g. shoulder dystocia; or failing to avoid the unavoidable - e.g. cerebral palsy. This case is a logical extension of the new dictum og jurisprudence: &quot;Someone must be to blame&quot;.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And are we so much better? Essentially, the scientists have been jailed for failing to predict the unpredictable. How many times have obstetricians been faulted by the US and European court for failing to predict the unpredictable &#8211; e.g. shoulder dystocia; or failing to avoid the unavoidable &#8211; e.g. cerebral palsy. This case is a logical extension of the new dictum og jurisprudence: &#8220;Someone must be to blame&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Leafs004		</title>
		<link>https://www.overlawyered.com/2012/10/italy-scientists-sent-prison-faulty-earthquake-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-177586</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Leafs004]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Oct 2012 19:23:35 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[This ruling will only encourage scientists to err on the side of total disaster.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This ruling will only encourage scientists to err on the side of total disaster.</p>
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